Obesity in France: a cost of €12.7 billion in 2024 and potentially €15.4 billion in 2030
Obesity in France: a cost of €12.7 billion in 2024 and potentially €15.4 billion in 2030
According to Asterès estimates, by 2024 obesity would be responsible for over 7 million cases of pathologies, treatments and care episodes in France, as well as over 68,000 deaths, costing the community €12.7 billion. The cost of obesity rose by an average of 4.5% a year between 2020 and 2024, due to the rise in patient numbers and costs, and could reach €15.4 billion by 2030 if more substantial measures are not taken to reverse the trend.
Complications: obesity is responsible for over 7 million cases of pathologies and 68,000 deaths by 2024
By 2024, obesity will be responsible for more than 7.2 million cases of pathologies, treatments and care episodes, and 68,000 deaths, according to Asterès forecasts. Obesity is defined as an excessive accumulation of adipose tissue, harmful to the individual's health, and affects 18.1% of the French adult population, or more than 9.5 million people. Obesity is associated with numerous other pathologies or adverse health events known as "complications or comorbidities of obesity", sometimes leading to death. These complications are preventable by reducing the prevalence of obesity. Asterès has estimated the number of cases and deaths attributable to obesity, using the epidemiological notion of "population-attributable risk "1. According to Asterès calculations, each year in France, obesity is responsible for almost 2 million cases of cardio-neurovascular disease, 2 million cases of osteoarticular and muscular disease, 2 million cases of metabolic disease, almost 900,000 cases of respiratory disease, 180,000 cases of cancer and 330,000 other diseases. According to Asterès forecasts, obesity-related cardio-neurovascular diseases will be responsible for around 33,200 deaths by 2024, diabetes for 25,800, cancers for 8,900 and asthma for around 100.
Cost: obesity represents a socio-economic burden of €12.7 billion in 2024, borne mainly by the French health insurance system.
According to Asterès forecasts, the cost of treating obesity and its complications is expected to reach €12.7 billion in 2024, or an average of €1,291 per patient, for the French health insurance system, complementary health organizations and companies. This cost includes the cost of hospitalization for obesity management (2%), notably bariatric surgery, and the cost of obesity complications (98%). This estimate is conservative compared to literature estimates, and reflects Asterès' choice to quantify only effectively avoidable costs, i.e. the healthcare expenditure that would be saved (medical cost) and the additional net production that would be achieved (socio-economic cost) if obesity were eradicated from the population. Asterès does not take into account intangible costs or out-of-pocket expenses, and limits itself to the frictional costs of absenteeism (work stoppages) and the cumulative frictional costs of death for the socio-economic cost. The avoidable cost of obesity is shared between the French health insurance system (80%), OCAMs (12%) and companies (8%). It should be noted that this is a provisional cost, as data on the cost and number of pathologies in 2024 are not yet available, and have been estimated by Asterès.
* The cost to the French health insurance system is expected to reach €10.2 billion in 2024, or around 5% of all expenses reimbursed by the French health insurance system. This cost was obtained by multiplying the average cost of each complication or treatment of obesity (hospital and outpatient care) by the number of cases attributable to obesity. The three most costly complications for the French health insurance system are diabetes (38% of the cost), cardio-neurovascular disease (27%) and cancer (13%).
* The cost to OCAMs is expected to be €1.5 billion in 2024. This cost has been estimated on the basis of the cost to the Assurance Maladie (excluding ALD expenditure) by applying, for each type of care, the rate of reimbursement by the Assurance Maladie Complémentaire, in town and in hospital. The three most costly complications for OCAMs are hypertension (21% of the cost), low back pain (18%) and sleep apnea syndrome (14%).
* The cost to companies is expected to reach €1.0 billion in 2024. Net production losses due to work stoppages represent 60%ofthe cost, and net production losses due to death 40%. These costs take into account the compensation of part of the activity by colleagues in the event of absence (up to 56% on average, according to a literature review by Asterès2 ), and the possibility for an economy to adapt in the long term to the death of a worker (through training, technological innovation or immigration), leading to rather conservative estimates. The three most costly complications for companies are diabetes (25% of the cost), lower back pain (15%) and cancer (11%).
Trends and forecasts: sharply rising costs that could exceed €15 billion by 2030 if nothing is done
The cost of obesity rose by €2 billion between 2020 and 2024, driven by the rising cost of treatment and the dynamics of the epidemic, and could reach €15.4 billion in 2030 if nothing is done. In the first version of this study, Asterès estimated the cost of obesity in France for the year 2020 at €10.7 billion (revised to take into account the population of DROM-COM). Since then, the cost of obesity in France has risen by an average of 4.5% a year, driven by two main factors: the number of obese patients (population growth and obesity rates) and the average cost of obesity complications (exceptional rise between 2020 and 2022). The decline in the number of complications per patient, which could be explained by a fall in the average age of the obese population, has tempered the effect of the upward factors. According to Asterès projections, growth in the cost of obesity is set to slow from 2024 onwards, to an average of 3.2% a year, mainly due to slower population growth and a return to "normal" healthcare cost growth. It should be noted that these results should not be interpreted as a forecast of the cost of obesity in 2030, but rather as an exploration of one of several possible scenarios, in which the structural trends of the last ten to fifteen years would continue. For example, we have not taken into account the arrival of breakthrough treatments that could increase or decrease treatment costs, or the potential effects of collective efforts to curb the epidemic.
According to Asterès estimates, by 2024 obesity would be responsible for over 7 million cases of pathologies, treatments and care episodes in France, as well as over 68,000 deaths, costing the community €12.7 billion. The cost of obesity rose by an average of 4.5% a year between 2020 and 2024, due to the rise in patient numbers and costs, and could reach €15.4 billion by 2030 if more substantial measures are not taken to reverse the trend.
Complications: obesity is responsible for over 7 million cases of pathologies and 68,000 deaths by 2024
By 2024, obesity will be responsible for more than 7.2 million cases of pathologies, treatments and care episodes, and 68,000 deaths, according to Asterès forecasts. Obesity is defined as an excessive accumulation of adipose tissue, harmful to the individual's health, and affects 18.1% of the French adult population, or more than 9.5 million people. Obesity is associated with numerous other pathologies or adverse health events known as "complications or comorbidities of obesity", sometimes leading to death. These complications are preventable by reducing the prevalence of obesity. Asterès has estimated the number of cases and deaths attributable to obesity, using the epidemiological notion of "population-attributable risk "1. According to Asterès calculations, each year in France, obesity is responsible for almost 2 million cases of cardio-neurovascular disease, 2 million cases of osteoarticular and muscular disease, 2 million cases of metabolic disease, almost 900,000 cases of respiratory disease, 180,000 cases of cancer and 330,000 other diseases. According to Asterès forecasts, obesity-related cardio-neurovascular diseases will be responsible for around 33,200 deaths by 2024, diabetes for 25,800, cancers for 8,900 and asthma for around 100.
Cost: obesity represents a socio-economic burden of €12.7 billion in 2024, borne mainly by the French health insurance system.
According to Asterès forecasts, the cost of treating obesity and its complications is expected to reach €12.7 billion in 2024, or an average of €1,291 per patient, for the French health insurance system, complementary health organizations and companies. This cost includes the cost of hospitalization for obesity management (2%), notably bariatric surgery, and the cost of obesity complications (98%). This estimate is conservative compared to literature estimates, and reflects Asterès' choice to quantify only effectively avoidable costs, i.e. the healthcare expenditure that would be saved (medical cost) and the additional net production that would be achieved (socio-economic cost) if obesity were eradicated from the population. Asterès does not take into account intangible costs or out-of-pocket expenses, and limits itself to the frictional costs of absenteeism (work stoppages) and the cumulative frictional costs of death for the socio-economic cost. The avoidable cost of obesity is shared between the French health insurance system (80%), OCAMs (12%) and companies (8%). It should be noted that this is a provisional cost, as data on the cost and number of pathologies in 2024 are not yet available, and have been estimated by Asterès.
* The cost to the French health insurance system is expected to reach €10.2 billion in 2024, or around 5% of all expenses reimbursed by the French health insurance system. This cost was obtained by multiplying the average cost of each complication or treatment of obesity (hospital and outpatient care) by the number of cases attributable to obesity. The three most costly complications for the French health insurance system are diabetes (38% of the cost), cardio-neurovascular disease (27%) and cancer (13%).
* The cost to OCAMs is expected to be €1.5 billion in 2024. This cost has been estimated on the basis of the cost to the Assurance Maladie (excluding ALD expenditure) by applying, for each type of care, the rate of reimbursement by the Assurance Maladie Complémentaire, in town and in hospital. The three most costly complications for OCAMs are hypertension (21% of the cost), low back pain (18%) and sleep apnea syndrome (14%).
* The cost to companies is expected to reach €1.0 billion in 2024. Net production losses due to work stoppages represent 60%ofthe cost, and net production losses due to death 40%. These costs take into account the compensation of part of the activity by colleagues in the event of absence (up to 56% on average, according to a literature review by Asterès2 ), and the possibility for an economy to adapt in the long term to the death of a worker (through training, technological innovation or immigration), leading to rather conservative estimates. The three most costly complications for companies are diabetes (25% of the cost), lower back pain (15%) and cancer (11%).
Trends and forecasts: sharply rising costs that could exceed €15 billion by 2030 if nothing is done
The cost of obesity rose by €2 billion between 2020 and 2024, driven by the rising cost of treatment and the dynamics of the epidemic, and could reach €15.4 billion in 2030 if nothing is done. In the first version of this study, Asterès estimated the cost of obesity in France for the year 2020 at €10.7 billion (revised to take into account the population of DROM-COM). Since then, the cost of obesity in France has risen by an average of 4.5% a year, driven by two main factors: the number of obese patients (population growth and obesity rates) and the average cost of obesity complications (exceptional rise between 2020 and 2022). The decline in the number of complications per patient, which could be explained by a fall in the average age of the obese population, has tempered the effect of the upward factors. According to Asterès projections, growth in the cost of obesity is set to slow from 2024 onwards, to an average of 3.2% a year, mainly due to slower population growth and a return to "normal" healthcare cost growth. It should be noted that these results should not be interpreted as a forecast of the cost of obesity in 2030, but rather as an exploration of one of several possible scenarios, in which the structural trends of the last ten to fifteen years would continue. For example, we have not taken into account the arrival of breakthrough treatments that could increase or decrease treatment costs, or the potential effects of collective efforts to curb the epidemic.
